Countering the new horsemen of the apocalypse

Nuclear war, climate change, lab-created viruses and out-of-control machines need to be understood, but there are risks to lumping threats together

CALL them the modern horsemen of the apocalypse: nuclear war, climate change, doomsday viruses and out-of-control machines. These are the subjects of the proposed Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER), which this week attracted much media attention. "We're talking about threats to our very existence stemming from human activity," says Martin Rees, a cosmologist at the University of Cambridge who wants to found the centre with philosopher Huw Price and Skype inventor Jaan Tallinn.

These new horsemen map quite readily onto the portrayals of war, famine, pestilence and death. Perhaps that's because they're only the latest manifestation of age-old anxieties about the fate of the human race. So is the CSER just the respectable face of doom-mongering?

Events that would entirely eradicate humanity are hard to envisage (New Scientist, 3 March, p 36), but the 20th century saw the advent of technology that could seriously threaten human life as we know it - nuclear weaponry - and the 21st might well see the emergence of more. So the end of the world is now more conceivable than ever - although there's no particular reason to expect it imminently (garbled Mayan prophecies notwithstanding). And Rees is right to say that we don't pay enough attention to the huge, rare risks that might bring it about. Setting them out and sizing them up is worthwhile.

But do we need a centre to bring together specialists in such disparate fields? It's not clear what is to be gained by lumping together, say, nuclear war - whose risks are relatively well understood and contained - and rapacious AI, whose key mitigant may be software design rather than weapons inspections. Why not include genuinely existential natural risks, such as Earth-crossing asteroids? And then there's the potential for robust climate change analysis to become associated with as yet speculative "Terminator studies".

We won't know unless we try it. And the effort might bring fresh perspective to a world full of people who still fret that the LHC will spawn a world-destroying black hole - while they stubbornly ignore the clear and present dangers of climate change.

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Gas explosion in Springfield points to ageing pipes

Human error and corroded pipes were a catastrophic combination on 23 November when a natural gas explosion in Springfield, Massachusetts, injured 21 people and damaged more than 40 buildings.

Gas company officials attributed the incident to an employee puncturing a high-pressure pipeline with a metal probe while looking for a leak. However, the steel pipeline was highly corroded, making it susceptible to damage, according to Mark McDonald, president of the New England Gas Workers Association. "You would have to be Superman to go through steel pipe in good condition," he says.

Ageing natural gas pipelines in the US are increasingly coming under scrutiny. A recent study found 3356 leaks from pipelines under Boston alone. Twenty-five thousand leaks have been reported throughout Massachusetts, some of which have been leaking continuously for more than 20 years, McDonald says. "Enough is enough," he says. "We have to fix the leaks and maintain the gas lines."

The leaks raise safety concerns, and have implications for global warming. Methane is thought to be more than 20 times more effective at trapping heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide over a 100 year period.

Incidents involving natural gas pipelines in the US cause an average of $133 million in property damage each year according to data collected by the US Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. Even accounting for inflation, annual damages are several times higher today than they were 20 years ago.

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Lake life survives in total isolation for 3000 years

It is seven times as salty as the sea, pitch dark and 13 degrees below freezing. Lake Vida in East Antarctica has been buried for 2800 years under 20 metres of ice, but teems with life.

The discovery of strange, abundant bacteria in a completely sealed, icebound lake strengthens the possibility that extraterrestrial life might exist on planets such as Mars and moons such as Jupiter's Europa.

"Lake Vida is a model of what happens when you try to freeze a lake solid, and this is the same fate that any lakes on Mars would have gone through as the planet turned colder from a watery past," says Peter Doran of the University of Illinois, Chicago. He is co-leader of a team working in the Dry Valleys of Antarctica where Vida is situated. "Any Martian water bodies that did form would have gone through this Vida stage before freezing solid, entombing the evidence of the past ecosystem."

The Vida bacteria, brought to the surface in cores drilled 27 metres down, belong to previously unknown species. They probably survive by metabolising the abundant quantities of hydrogen and oxides of nitrogen that Vida's salty, oxygen-free water has been found to contain.

Co-research leader Alison Murray of the Desert Research Institute in Reno, Nevada, is now investigating this further by growing some of the extracted cells in the lab. "We can use these cultivated organisms to better understand the physical or chemical extremes they can tolerate that might be relevant to other icy worlds such as Europa," she says.

Surprise composition

Murray and her colleagues were surprised to find so much hydrogen, nitrous oxide and carbon in the water. They speculate that these substances might originate from reactions between salt and nitrogen-containing minerals in the surrounding rock. Over the centuries, bacteria denied sunlight may have evolved to be completely reliant on these substances for energy. "I think the unusual conditions found in the lake have likely played a significant role in shaping the diversity and capabilities of life we found," she says.

But the existence of life in Lake Vida does not necessarily increase the likelihood that life exists in much older, deeper lakes under investigation in Antarctica, most notably Vostok and Ellsworth, which are 3 kilometres down and have been isolated for millions rather than thousands of years.

"It doesn't give us clues about whether there's life in Vostok or Ellsworth, but it says that under these super-salty conditions, life does OK," says Martin Siegert of the University of Bristol, UK, and leader of an expedition to Ellsworth which set off on 25 November. "We'll be drilling down 3 kilometres into the lake," he says.

Journal reference: PNAS, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1208607190

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New vaccine may give lifelong protection from flu

Flu season has come early this year in parts of the northern hemisphere, and many people are scrambling to get their annual vaccination. That ritual may someday be history.

In a first for any infectious disease, a vaccine against flu has been made out of messenger RNA (mRNA) – the genetic material that controls the production of proteins. Unlike its predecessors, the new vaccine may work for life, and it may be possible to manufacture it quickly enough to stop a pandemic.

We become immune to a flu strain when our immune system learns to recognise key proteins, called HA and NA, on the surface of the flu virus. This can happen either because we have caught and fought off that strain of flu, or because we received one of the standard vaccines, most of which contain killed flu virus.

Flu constantly evolves, however, so those proteins change and your immunity to one year's strain does not extend to following year's. For this reason, a new vaccine has to be produced each year. Most flu vaccines are grown in chicken eggs or cell culture, a process that takes at least six months.

This time lag means that the World Health Organization has to predict months in advance which viruses are most likely to be circulating the following winter. Drug companies then make a new vaccine based on their recommendations. Of course, these recommendations can be wrong, or worse, when a completely new flu virus causes a pandemic, its first waves can be over before any vaccine is ready.

Freeze-dried vaccine

Now there could be a solution. The mRNA that controls the production of HA and NA in a flu virus can be mass-produced in a few weeks, says Lothar Stitz of the Friedrich-Loeffler Institute in Riems Island, Germany. This mRNA can be turned into a freeze-dried powder that does not need refrigeration, unlike most vaccines, which have to be kept cool.

An injection of mRNA is picked up by immune cells, which translate it into protein. These proteins are then recognised by the body as foreign, generating an immune response. The immune system will then recognise the proteins if it encounters the virus subsequently, allowing it to fight off that strain of flu.

Similar vaccines have been made of DNA that codes for flu proteins. But DNA vaccines seem unlikely ever to be approved, because of worries that they might be incorporated into human DNA, disrupting gene regulation.

Safety advantage

That is not a risk with mRNA, which cannot become part of the genome. For this reason, "RNA probably has advantages over DNA as concerns safety," says Bjarne Bogen of the University of Oslo, Norway, who is working on a DNA vaccine for flu.

Trial RNA vaccines have failed, however, after being destroyed rapidly in the blood. But CureVac, a company in Tübingen, Germany, has found that a protein called protamine, binds to mRNA and protects it. It has an mRNA vaccine against prostate and lung cancer tumours in human trials.

"Amazingly, mRNA vaccines have never been really tested against infectious diseases," says Stitz. His team used CureVac's process to make durable mRNA vaccines for common human flu strains, as well as H5N1 bird flu. In mice, ferrets and pigs, the vaccines rapidly elicited protective levels of antibodies.

Two-pronged immunity

They also induced cell-mediated immunity, which is an immune response that does not involve antibodies but activates blood cells such as killer T-cells to destroy specific pathogens. Vaccines made only of the proteins do not elicit this type of response. Having both types of immunity clears infection faster, and can also protect against flu for longer, as cell-mediated reactions still recognise flu viruses after they have evolved enough to evade antibodies.

A true universal vaccine for flu, however, would induce immunity to proteins that are the same in all flu viruses, but which flu normally hides from the immune system. Stitz's team made an mRNA vaccine to one such protein from an ordinary seasonal flu. The vaccine not only protected animals from that flu strain, but also from H5N1 bird flu.

Vaccines that work against all flu strains could eventually be given once in childhood, like vaccines for other diseases. Meanwhile, Stitz is also working on an mRNA vaccine for rabies. "We think that mRNA would provide an excellent platform against viral, bacterial and fungal diseases," he says.

Journal reference: Nature Biotechnology, DOI: 10.1038/nbt.2436

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Papa pipefish's pregnancy good for young's immunity

MALE pipefish pregnancy may suit the females, but it's a real boon for their offspring.

In human fetuses, antibodies from the mother's egg and others that pass across the placenta help build its developing immune system. Sperm are too small to carry antibodies, so males aren't thought to contribute.

Not so in pipefish, where the male carries the pregnancy. To see if the immune priming might come from both the mother's egg and via the father's placenta-like structure, Olivia Roth at the Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel in Germany and colleagues exposed lab-grown male and female broad-nosed pipefish to dead bacteria. The fish were then left to mate and the resulting offspring were later also exposed.

The young had the strongest immune response if both parents had been exposed to the bacteria, suggesting both provided antibodies (The American Naturalist, doi.org/jrq).

Pipefish may not be the only fathers that help build their offspring's immune system. Pigeons of both sexes have been shown to "lactate" antibody-rich "milk" in their crops for their chicks.

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